Date and time: Thursday 14 May 12.00pm - 1.00pm AEST
Topic: Causal reasoning in program evaluation: A critical review
Venue: Via Zoom. Details will be emailed to registrants just prior to the start time
Presenter: Andrew Mclachlan | QLD Regional Committee
Register online by: 13 May 2026

Event description:

Most evaluations rely on causal claims, yet evaluators often use tools such as logic models and theories of change without making their underlying assumptions explicit. This presentation argues that strengthening causal reasoning requires greater clarity about the logics through which causal claims are warranted (Gates and Dyson 2017).

Drawing on philosophical and methodological work on causation, the presentation discusses a pluralistic account that distinguishes between relations of dependence (e.g. regularity, probabilistic, and counterfactual approaches) and relations of production (e.g. process, dispositional, and conjunctural accounts) (Hall 2004). Each operates according to distinct rules for making causal claims, with implications for how evidence is interpreted and arguments are justified.

The presenter then demonstrates how different causal logics can be combined to strengthen evaluative reasoning. Using an illustrative example, it shows how realist context–mechanism–outcome (CMO) configurations (Pawson and Tilley 1997) and Mackie’s INUS conditions (Mackie 1965) offer complementary accounts of causality. The paper concludes that no single causal theory is sufficient for all evaluative purposes. Instead, evaluators must draw on multiple causal logics to construct coherent, plausible, and contextually appropriate causal arguments.

Presenter details:

Andrew McLachlan has over ten years’ experience in educational research, evaluation, and policy, including senior roles within the NSW Department of Education, with a focus on knowledge translation and implementation science. He has presented at Australian Evaluation Society conferences, the Implementation Science Interest Group (ISIG), and the Centre for Advancement in Realist Evaluation and Synthesis (CARES). His work draws on large-scale system reform and evaluation, where robust and defensible causal reasoning is essential to informing policy and practice.

This seminar will be recorded and available on the member portal only.

This free event has been organised by the QLD Regional Network of the AES. Our seminar series provides an opportunity for you to meet with AES members and others in the evaluation community and to share and learn from the experiences of fellow evaluators. Please also check your email address is correct on your registration form before submitting. 

Session start times:

• NSW, VIC QLD, ACT, TAS: 12.00pm

• SA, NT: 11.30am

• WA: 10.00am

• New Zealand: 2.00pm

For other time zones please go to https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html

Please ensure you have access to your email address just prior to the start time to access Zoom details. Please also check your email address is correct on your registration form before submitting. Thanks.